The Russian Masterpiece in Syria: Everyone Wins by Federico Pieraccini!
(2019-10-16 at 16:24:28 )

The Russian Masterpiece in Syria: Everyone Wins by Federico Pieraccini

"Moscow and Damascus have always maintained they are against any form of partition or illegal foreign presence in Syria."

Moscow has managed to maintain contacts with all parties in the conflict, even in spite of its stance against partition and illegal foreign presence. Trilateral talks between Iran, Turkey and Russia occurred in Astana at Moscows urging. Mr. Putin managed to bring together in Sochi the Syrian government and opposition groups to discuss the future of Syria. In Geneva, Moscow mediated between Damascus and the international community, shielding Syria from the diplomatic skulduggery of the United States and other enemies of Syria.

Turkey, solely as a result of its defeat in Syria, now finds itself in active dialogue with Moscow and Tehran. As Ankara experiences worsening relations with Washington,D.C. and other European capitals, Moscow saw a great opportunity to bring Turkey closer to Damascus.

Russias operation was complicated and required a lot of patience; but thanks to negotiations supervised by Russia, together with the bravery and courage of Syrian soldiers, almost all of the terrorist pockets scattered around Syria have been progressively overcome.

Other than the Idlib province, the main problem for Damascus lay with the United States occupation in the northeast of the country, under the pretext of protecting the Kurds (SDF) from the "Assad regime", as well as to "fight Daesh".

Mr. Erdogan currently finds himself boxed in, squeezed in by a collapsing economy, threatened by his allies (the purchase of the Russian S-400 system irritated many in Washington,D.C. and in NATO): he desperately needs to present some kind of victory to his base.

This may be the primary reason behind Mr. Erdogans decision to move into Syria under the pretense that the YPG is a terrorist organization linked with the PKK - proceeding to create a buffer zone on the border between Syria and Turkey and declaring "mission accomplished" to boost popularity ratings.

With Donald Trump, he is desperate to shift attention away from the impeachment proceedings (a hoax), and similarly needs to present some kind of victory to his base.

Why, what better way to do this than with a mini withdrawal of United States troops from Syria, leaving the Kurds to their destiny (Trumps care factor regarding SDF is minimal, as they are more connected to his political opponents in the Democratic Party), while claiming victory over Daesh for the umpteenth time in recent months?

Mr. Trump, with a handful of tweets directed against the Pentagons "crazy spending" and United States of Americas past wars, finds himself and his base giving each other high fives on their commitment to the doctrine of "America First".

Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Trump have also solved the embarrassing internal conflict within NATO between Turkey and the United States, probably reestablishing personal relationships (the tough talk from the White House notwithstanding).

The agreement between the Kurds (SDF) and Damascus is the only natural conclusion to events that are heavily orchestrated by Moscow. The deployment of Syrian and Russian troops on the border with Turkey is the prelude to the reconquest of the entirety of Syrian territory - the outcome the Kremlin was wishing for at the beginning of this diplomatic masterpiece.

Washington,D.C. and Ankara have never had any opportunities to prevent Damascus from reunifying the country.

It was assumed by Moscow that Washington,D.C. and Ankara would sooner or later seek the correct exit strategy, even as they proclaimed victory to their respective bases in the face of defeat in Syria. This is exactly what Mr. Putin and Mr. Lavrov came up with over the last few weeks, offering Mr. Trump and Mr. Erdogan the solution to their Syrian problems.

President Trump will state that he has little interest in countries 7,000 miles from the homeland; and Mr. Erdogan (with some reluctance) will affirm that the border between Turkey and Syria, when held by the Syrian Arab Army, guarantees security against the Kurds.

Mr. Putin has no doubt advised Mr. Assad and the Kurds to begin a dialogue in the common interests of Syria. He would have no doubt also convinced Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Trump of the need to accept these plans.

An agreement that rewards Damascus and Moscow saves the Kurds while leaving Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Trump with a semblance of dignity in a situation that is difficult to explain to a domestic or international audience.

Moscow has started joint patrols with the Syrian Arab Army on the borders with Turkey for the purposes of preventing any military clashes between Ankara and Damascus. If Ankara halts its military operation in the coming days, Damascus will regain control of the oil fields.

The world will then have witnessed one of the greatest diplomatic masterpieces ever conceived, responsible for bringing closer the end of the seven-year-long Syrian conflict.

Reprinted here from the "Strategic Culture Foundation" provides a platform for exclusive analysis, research and policy comment on Eurasian and global affairs. We are covering political, economic, social and security issues worldwide. Since 2005 our journal has published thousands of analytical briefs and commentaries with the unique perspective of independent contributors. SCF works to broaden and diversify expert discussion by focusing on hidden aspects of international politics and unconventional thinking. Benefiting from the expanding power of the Internet, we work to spread reliable information, critical thought and progressive ideas.