How Iran Can Checkmate Trump by Eric Zuesse
(2020-01-07 at 15:58:16 )

How Iran Can Checkmate Trump by Eric Zuesse

On Sunday morning 5 January 2020, the great investigative journalist and geostrategist Bernhard Horstmann headlined "Iraqi Parliament Expels Foreign Militaries From Iraq" and he reported that not only the parliament but also the nations Prime Minister (Abdel Mahdi) are demanding departure from Iraq of all foreign military forces, and that Iraq will now - as UAEs The National puts it - "lodge an official complaint against the United States at the United Nations."

The complaint will "condemn #US airstrikes on #Iraqi soil targeting Iraqi soldiers and both Iraqi and #Iranian military leaders."

(United States-and-allied "news"-media, such as Reuters, lied about this matter when saying that "While such resolutions are not binding on the government, this one is likely to be heeded: Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi had earlier called on parliament to end foreign troop presence as soon as possible." As Horstmann had already explained, the assassination was profoundly embarrassing personally to Mahdi, and he "and the whole cabinet supported the resolution." Under such circumstances, there is no way possible that the Prime Minister can reverse himself and his cabinet and the Parliament, on that demand.

It is a non-reversible demand.

But, later on January 5th, the United States State Department nonetheless said, "While we await further clarification on the legal nature and impact of todays resolution, we strongly urge Iraqi leaders to reconsider the importance of the ongoing economic and security relationship between the two countries and the continued presence of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS."

That was a stupid statement, but at least it was not so demeaning to Shiites and to Shiite-led governments as the United States Presidents statements normally are.

It was instead a public display that the United States of American dictator can not believe that, from now on, Iraqis are going to be running Iraq, and that there is no way the ruler in Washington,D.C. can possibly dictate to Iraq again.

Yet, Axios reported later in the day, that "I think it would be inconvenient for us, but it would be catastrophic for Iraq," said a United States official familiar with the Trump administrations effort to block the vote. It is our concern that Iraq would take a short-term decision that would have catastrophic long-term implications for the country and its security."

The United States Government was already becoming desperate and resorting to veiled unspecific "catastrophe" for Iraqis if Iraqs Government will not reverse this command.

Some fat chance that the outraged and temporarily united Iraqi public are going to cave to such veiled threats from Iraqs viscerally hated invader.)

Horstmann, a progressive German who despises fascists (such as Trump), makes abundantly clear that "Without any bases in Iraq the United States position in Syria will become untenable." He quotes another respected geostrategist, Elijah Magnier, saying, "#Qassem Soleimani managed to reach with his death what he could not reach when he was alive.

That is his last spectacular act for Iran and for the -Axis of the Resistance’-: legislation forcing the United States to withdraw and cease all kind of collaboration."

Instances in which I have tracked the accuracy of predictions of both Horstmann and Magnier, have shown Horstmanns to have an even higher (virtually 100%) rate of having proven accurate than Magniers do; and, consequently, Horstmanns quoting this from Magnier makes it Horstmans prediction also, and not only Magniers.

This adds weight to it. Consequently, the United States regimes long war against Iran, which started by its successful coup in 1953 overthrowing Irans democratically elected Government and replacing that legitimate Government by a barbaric dictatorship which lasted until 1979 and which United States of American billionaires even up to the present time cannot tolerate having been overthrown by the Iranian people in 1979, does finally appear likely to end, with the fascist imperialist United States regimes humiliating defeat, one way or another, but not necessarily quickly.

Horstmann closes with:

There is a clear danger in this act [by Iraqs Government, expelling all United States forces]. The Donald Trump administration is now likely to see Iraq as completely in the Iranian camp.

That never was and never will be true but that is how it will be seen.

The United States may therefore again start to pay (with Saudi money?) Sunni extremists, i.e. ISIS, to change the current situation to its advantage.

That is one reason why I recommend to Iraq to invite Russia to train its army.

However, here I respectfully diverge from Mr. Horstmanns view.

While I do favor Iraqs becoming allied with Russia - the nation that United States of Americas Government has been aiming ever since 26 July 1945 (when the United States Government became taken over by Americas Deep State or aristocracy) to conquer - I believe that immediately is not the best time to do this. My sense of the situation is that Donald Trump has already trapped himself here, and that if only Iran will refrain from fulfilling anytime soon its threats to retaliate, then Donald Trump will become forced by circumstances to accept a settlement on Irans terms.

Consequently, any public action by Russia right now would serve only to provide United States of Americas billionaires (acting, as they customarily do, via their agents and fronts) yet another opportunity to call Russia -an enemy of America- and thereby to distract the global public from the blatant, sheer, and unalloyed, evil, of Donald Trumps constant efforts to crush Iran - a nation that never invaded nor even threatened to invade America.

Furthermore, Iraqs leadership have probably already been advised by Russia to refrain from publicly seeking alliance with Russia at the present stage; and, so, I do not expect that any such request by Iraq will be made at this time. If Iraq requests it now and Russia does not favorably respond, that would only weaken both Iraq and Russia; so, I do not expect it to happen. Not yet.

Timing is almost everything. On 18 November 2019, Russias Sputnik News bannered "Russia Ready to Deliver Arms to Iran After Intl Sanctions Lifted - Defence Cooperation Body", and this obviously means that Russia does not want to come out publicly on Irans side unless and until the United States regime has cancelled its sanctions against Iran.

Mr. Putin is an extremely intelligent man; he understands timing. Donald Trumps 3 January 2020 assassination of Irans #2 leader is an overt (by means of that action) declaration of war by him against Iran; and, so, Russia clearly can see that if Russia overtly comes out as being allied with Iran against the United States, then the conflict between United States and Iran would immediately be also a conflict between United States and Russia - and at an even higher level of adversariality than since 30 September 2015 (when Russia started bombing Americas and Saudi Arabias hired boots-on-the-ground fighters - led by Al Qaeda in Syria - who were trying to overthrow Syrias secular Government) has existed regarding the war in Syria.

It would be wrong for Russia, until United States troops are already gone from Iraq. Russias strategy has always been to delay World War III until all other means of pacifying Americas ravenous aristocracy have become exhausted - which has not happened yet.

If Russia will be coming out publicly in favor of Iran against the United States regime, then that would be just one step away from a direct hot war with the United States, which would produce global nuclear annihilation.

Obviously, Russia will not yet do that.

Forcing Donald Trump either to become publicly humiliated by backing down, or else for him to destroy the planet within less than an hour by means of WW III, is not necessary now, though could later occur, if Donald Trump is crazy enough to refuse to comply with Iraqs January 5th command.

So: neither Iraq nor Iran should make any such move (inviting Russia in), at the present time.

Only after United States troops are gone from the region could Iraq and Iran become publicly allied with, and under the protection of, Russia. Only then will the realigned global order start. Right now would be too early.

Irans leadership team are remarkably intelligent. (Americas, after FDR died, have usually been cunning but now - under Donald Trump - are not even that.)

Irans leaders have promised retaliation for what Donald Trump did. But they have not said when it will be done, or what it will entail. If they just stand back and wait while the world-at-large (other than American billionaires core foreign allies the aristocracies of Saudi Arabia, Israel, and United Kingdom) gradually abandon their alliances with the United States regime, then not only Iran but also the United States regimes other main targets - Russia and China - will naturally rise in the international order, and this could become the way that the worlds most dangerous imperialistic regime, the United States Government (since 1948 the serial perpetrator of coups and invasions), will finally be able to be defeated peacefully, and defanged gradually thereafter.

That would be Irans retaliation - none.

Here is what I see as a possible end-point to this matter, if all non-United States entities respond to this turning-point in history in the optimal ways:

Donald Trump would announce that he is herewith cancelling sanctions against Iran and restoring United States participation in the Iran nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which in 2015 was signed by China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, Germany, and then the entire European Union. Iran would then announce that it is willing to discuss with all of the signatories to that agreement, if a majority of them wish to do so, international negotiations regarding possible changes (amendments) to be made to that agreement.

The United States would then offer, separately, and on a strictly bi-lateral, United States-Iran, basis, to negotiate with Iran a settlement to all outstanding issues between the two nations, so that they may proceed forward with normal diplomatic relations, on a peaceful instead of mutually hostile, foundation.

Donald Trump also would announce that he is seeking negotiations with Iraq about a total withdrawal of the United States from Iraq - the end of the United States occupation that started on 20 March 2003 - and closure of the United States Embassy there, to be replaced by a far smaller United States Embassy.

Americas imperial sway over Iraq will end, though not immediately - its ending will be a process. This will be a negotiated termination, a peaceful one (unless Donald Trump is crazy enough to resist).

Donald Trump would initiate this as a package-deal confidentially offered by him to Khamenei - all steps of it - in advance of any carrying-out of the steps, and initiated by him soon enough to ward off any retaliatory action by Iran (just in case Iran is not smart enough to give him all the time he needs in order to quit his further provocations), so as to avoid further escalation of the hostilities, which otherwise would likely escalate to a widespread and possibly global war.

In other words, this direct communication between the two should already have been sought by Donald Trump. (But, since he is probably too stupid to have thought that out in advance, let us all hope that Irans leadership are sufficiently intelligent to give him all the time that he needs.)

I do not expect Donald Trump to do any of that, not even the first step, and not even the offer to Khamenei; and Iran is in no position to make the first step, in any case (since the United States had started the mutual hostilities between the two nations in 1953).

However, if Donald Trump does, at least make the offer and then do the first step (ending sanctions), then I think that he will easily win re-election, regardless of whom the Democratic nominee will be. If he can re-establish friendly relations with Iran, then that will be a diplomatic achievement of historic proportions, the best and most important in decades.

No one would then be able to deny it.

He would, in fact, then deserve to win the Nobel Peace Prize (which Barack Obama never deserved to win, though he did win it).

But I do not expect any of that to happen, because it would be exactly contrary to the way that any recent United States President has behaved, and because many in power in the United States would be furious against him if he did do it.

But just give it time; and, if Iran simply waits for "the right time to retaliate", then retaliation by Iran will not even be necessary.

This would be "Checkmate!" by Iran, against the United States regime.

And that would be Irans (and everyones except United States, United Kingdoms, Israels, and Saudi Arabias) -retaliation-, for Donald Trumps personal combination of psychopathy and stupidity. (Those four nations - the core United States group - would then go on together, to decline peacefully in the global order.)

An interesting feature of this outcome is that Iran would then be using Donald Trumps enormous blunder in a way that would simultaneously defeat all four of the nations that are seeking to defeat Iran: US, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and UK.

Even if Donald Trump ends up winning his vaunted Nobel Peace Prize and Iran will not share in it, Iran would be the winner of what really is important, and (no matter how much such a prize would then be deserved only by Iran), that meaningless piece of PR dross would not mean anything to Irans leaders, anyway. They are not nearly so petty as Donald Trump - that is for sure.

Irans biggest weapon now will be patience, if they are smart enough to use it.

Donald Trumps assassination of Mr. Soleimani could turn out to have been the best thing that has ever happened for Iran.

If so, Mr. Soleimani, were he around to see the outcome, would be ecstatic that Donald Trump did it.

He was a true Iranian patriot, nothing of the fake sort. In any case, nothing, from now on, will be able to detract from the legend that will arise in Iran about him.

The ball is now in Irans court, for Mr. Soleimanis successors to determine the worlds future. Donald Trump made this possible. Without what he did on January 3rd, it would not be possible.

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