Has the Trump-Putin Thaw Finally Begun? by Tom Luongo
(2020-04-05 at 16:37:48 )

Has the Trump-Putin Thaw Finally Begun? by Tom Luongo

It has becoming increasingly clear as the Coronapocalypse wreaks havoc on all of our lives that the relationship between China and the United States has changed, and not for the better. At every level of state actor we have seen a huge increase in the rhetorical hostility between the two nations.

From President Trump calling COVID-19 the "China Virus" to the Chinese officially accusing the United States of seeding the virus in Wuhan back in October, these interactions signal a big shift is underway. Alexander Mercouris of The Duran has been saying for months that the United States and China have been headed for a divorce. And that this divorce is one of Donald Trumps strategic goals.

He recently upgraded that divorce to that of a new Cold War and I have to agree with him. We are seeing a sudden shift in anti-China coverage coming from Central Intelligence Agency house organs like the New York Times and the Washington Post. Both sides are effectively accusing the other of engaging in bioweapons deployment and attack which is very serious when one considers the United States current nuclear posture.

I do not want to alarm anyone with this statement, because the likelihood of anything like that happening are incredibly low. Instead I want you to consider what the purpose of such rhetoric is.

It is an excuse to ratchet up the domestic propaganda as cover story for how and why both countries are getting very ready to "take their toys and go home."

Against this backdrop of a fundamental shift in United States-China relations I want to bring up the recent phone call between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Because I feel this phone call highlights a number of significant changes to the landscape both domestically and internationally.

Here is the first one. Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump talked and the United States press did not go into apoplexy.

The absence of irresponsible histrionics by the likes of Rachel Maddow and Jake Tapper at CNN. Speaker Nancy Pelosi was not rushing to a microphone denouncing Donald Trump. Adam Schiff (remember him?) is AWOL.

You would think they would be trying to eviscerate Mr. Trump over talking with Mr. Putin at this moment in time. The talking points are ready made. "How can this president spend his time taking orders from his master Mr. Putin when there are thousands dying in New York?"

Because Donald Trump secured a plane full of needed medical equipment from Mr. Putin. And these same people are the ones whose lives are now directly threatened by COVID-19. I guess we may have found the limit to their depravity, when their lives are in danger they will back off on the petty, divisive and toxic politics.

Maybe they will save it for the weekend talk show circuit, but the lack of coverage here even after Donald Trumps tweets about massive oil production cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia is telling.

Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry-Donald J. Trump April 2, 2020

While Russia denied this initially, Saudi Arabia called for a new OPEC meeting right after Donald Trump "spilled the beans." It seems MbS got the message, "You cut now or I cut you off. Russia will do what Russia does."

The simple truth is that Donald Trump and Mr. Putin came to a quick deal for assistance to the United States similar to what happened after Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and Mr. Putin spoke.

Mr. Putins early handling of the Coronapocalypse placed him and Russia in a strong position to render aid quickly. Even though he and his country have been treated abysmally by Donald Trump and the EU there was no hesitation. In both cases, aid was on the way withing 24 hours of the phone call in question.

To me this is a big deal. It shows what happens when everyones priorities shift to that which is truly important, human life, and away from that which is not, ideology and personal power.

It is an easy political win for both Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump and highlights the insanity of their detractors in the West.

This is something that will go a long way with Donald Trump. For all of his faults Donald Trump is a patriot. He values United States of American lives and anyone helping him to save them will have his trust in the future.

This is not to say his actions always are the best for the American people, but that he acts with that in his mind. Does he care less about everyone else? Likely.

Be as cynical as you want about what his or Mr. Putins motives are but that does not change the conclusions in the dispassionate analysis.

Mr. Putin is someone Mr. Trump can deal with.

On the other hand, the accusations flying from the United States at China speak to something far different.

From Donald Trumps perspective, right or wrong, China withheld information about COVID-19 from the United States and threatened to cut off drug precursors.

That puts them in the "to be dealt with" pile on Donald Trumps desk rather than the "to cut a deal with" pile.

But the real question still remains whether Mr. Trump is someone Mr. Putin can, or more importantly should, deal with. That comes in the future. And the phone call which secured the medical aid for the United States also covered other issues, namely oil production and what Donald Trumps concerns are for United States oil and gas production.

Donald Trump is very committed to United States independence in energy. He may finally see that his "Energy Dominance" policy has failed miserably. But judging by the way his administration is handling Venezuela still, I very much doubt that.

Russias move to buy Rosnefts stake in Venezuelan energy assets signals that they are not abandoning Nicolas Maduro despite continued pressure by the United States.

But, at the same time, getting Mr. Putin to agree to some form of production cut to help the, now crippled, United States fracking industry has to be counted as a win.

The big question is what did Mr. Putin get in return? Because there is no way he hands Donald Trump that win without getting a major concession.

There are a number of issues outstanding here which could be the basis for an upcoming deal. Most of them involve sanctions which Donald Trump, thanks to CAATSA, does not have much say over since that law puts the removal of those sanctions applied under Congress control.

We will find out in the coming days but Donald Trump has to make a decision as to who is in a better position to help him save his domestic production, Russia or Saudi Arabia. The Saudis may have come to the end of their life as an ally for the United States if it can not control the Arab producers and, by extension, protect Israel.

In the end, Mr. Putin is the far better choice on both of those fronts since he and Russia are in a position to deliver on their promises. Meanwhile, bin Salman has proved beyond incompetent in containing the Axis of Resistance or marshalling the other Arab states into an effective counter force to cover the United States strategic withdrawal, something Donald Trump wants.

Given this and Donald Trumps looming re-election giving him new opportunities this phone call may be the first in a series that finally gets us back on track for a grand bargain in the Middle East that looks a whole lot different than what has been on offer the past few years.

Reprinted here from the "Strategic Culture Foundation" provides a platform for exclusive analysis, research and policy comment on Eurasian and global affairs. We are covering political, economic, social and security issues worldwide. Since 2005 our journal has published thousands of analytical briefs and commentaries with the unique perspective of independent contributors. SCF works to broaden and diversify expert discussion by focusing on hidden aspects of international politics and unconventional thinking. Benefiting from the expanding power of the Internet, we work to spread reliable information, critical thought and progressive ideas.