Finally, the EU and Donald Trump See Eye-to-Eye on One International Policy: China by Martin Jay!
(2020-06-20 at 11:45:14 )

Finally, the EU and Donald Trump See Eye-to-Eye on One International Policy: China by Martin Jay!

Both Donald Trump and the EU are turning on China for very similar reasons but with different timescales ahead of them. The West still struggles with what it requires from China and whether it wants to get rich and become a big spender, or become poorer and flood western markets with cheaper and cheaper goods. Expect more devaluation of the Yuan.

The EU is "rebalancing this relationship" with China. EU ambassador to the United Kingdom Joao Vale de Almeida tells Chatham House. It is not about "isolating" or "ganging up" on China, but it is about addressing issues. We have different systems of values on human rights and other areas".

A pretty remarkable statement to make and one which could only have come from a relatively obscure EU official, if it was based on solid support from the highest echelons of the EU in Brussels - who, in turn, would not go ahead with such a bellicose policy if they did not have the gilt-edged backing from France and Germany.

So, in a matter of weeks, where the EU was caught red-handed redacting its own internal report which slammed China over its COVID-19 role - and media coverage - now, we seem to be in the midst of the EU waking up to its own economy imploding and a political calamity to follow which could be the end of the EU as we know it.

The EU is starting to think about protectionism and is about to develop a new relation with China, which, we should assume means cutting less slack to Beijing on its goods, by jacking up tariffs.

In the United States, analysts are also saying that the United States-China trade deal is dead in the water, chiefly due to corona crashing world oil prices, which knocked a big hold in the first phase of Donald Trumps deal which involved China buying huge chunks of oil and gas from the United States at higher prices. In reality, for most of this year Chinas energy needs have also been dramatically reduced due to chaos and lockdowns which are corona-related. Donald Trump got the first phase off to a good start by forcing Chinas hand on agricultural goods which were floundering in many states which supported Donald Trump, but the "art of the deal" United States president is actually not very good at doing trade deals. The essence of a trade deal is its rigidity and sustainability. Donald Trumps barely lasted weeks. Foreign Policy, the high-brow international politics magazine, put it aptly.

"Amid the collapse in oil demand and prices unleashed by the pandemic, it is now all but certain that China will fail to meet its targets for energy purchases and expose the folly of Donald Trumps trade strategy" it says. "While Donald Trump was right to address Chinas problematic trade practices, the administrations approach made little sense before the pandemic-and makes even less sense now".

And many might argue that Donald Trumps determination to get a trade deal with China which helped blue collar families back home, was all about getting re-elected anyway, according to John Boltons bombshell book which reveals that the United States president right from the off was positioning the Chinese premier to help him (Donald Trump) get re-elected. Donald Trump believed all he needed to nail a second victory was a deal with China. Remarkable.

The toughening of both rhetoric and action now from Donald Trump as the deal falls apart was inevitable. Almost like a petulant child, as it becomes clear that Beijing can not keep its side of the bargain, Donald Trump goes into self-preservation mode to deflect blame.

Barely within a heartbeat, United States media announces news of sanctions against China on its reported concentration camps against Muslim groups, which, according to Mr. Bolton, he had secretly supported all along with Xi, which the former National Security chief claims was the "right thing to do" according to Donald Trump.

Within seconds, almost, it is as though if China cannot serve Donald Trump with his specific needs, then it has to become and enemy to at least generate the requisite media traffic which continues to get Donald Trump on the front pages. And this is what is playing out now. Already Beijing sees the game and is ready to play that role.

"We again urge the United States side to immediately correct its mistakes and stop using this Xinjiang-related law to harm Chinas interests and interfere in Chinas internal affairs," the ministry said in a statement.

"Otherwise China will resolutely take countermeasures, and all the consequences arising there from must be fully borne by the United States."

That sounded like a pretty lucid threat from China. Remarkably, Donald Trump, despite the losses to business and the crippling effect on United States companies in China, is happy to get tough with China. There is, in fact, no limit in what he can do to get re-elected - even make friends with the Taliban, if that is what it takes.

More remarkable is that the EU seems to be following his lead with their rationale why they should be tougher on China. Its own political survival beyond the next European elections in 2024.

With the catastrophic impact on the EU economy, many member states - not only Italy and Spain which were hit particularly hard - themselves are going to have to make tough decisions which resonate with angry voters over how to hold China accountable for the pandemic. The EU will be forced to follow this trend for its own survival as, for those member states where the political establishment save their own seats, scapegoats will be required. The Blame Game will make losers of the EU and its delusional ideas of being a super power.

Some political elites will blame Brussels and will have some success with this. And it is as though EU chiefs are already ahead of the game, if one of its "ambassadors" in London can openly make a comment to the press which talks about a new relationship with China.

Xi and his ministers will patiently wait for Donald Trump to fall on his own sword in November, as the scandal mounts up and the pressure on the Republican party reaches fever pitch. For the EU though, there is a longer game at play, with higher stakes. But will Brussels make it to 2024 though?

Reprinted here from the "Strategic Culture Foundation" provides a platform for exclusive analysis, research and policy comment on Eurasian and global affairs. We are covering political, economic, social and security issues worldwide. Since 2005 our journal has published thousands of analytical briefs and commentaries with the unique perspective of independent contributors. SCF works to broaden and diversify expert discussion by focusing on hidden aspects of international politics and unconventional thinking. Benefiting from the expanding power of the Internet, we work to spread reliable information, critical thought and progressive ideas.