The United States May Help Ukraine Launch An Offensive On Crimea by Ms Caitlin Johnstone!
(2023-01-20 at 00:25:18 )

The United States May Help Ukraine Launch An Offensive On Crimea by Ms Caitlin Johnstone!

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In a new article titled "United States Warms to Helping Ukraine Target Crimea," the New York Times reports that the Biden administration now believes Kyiv may need to launch an offensive on the territory that Moscow has considered a part of the Russian Federation since 2014, "even if such a move increases the risk of escalation."

Citing unnamed United States officials, The New York Times says "the Biden administration does not think that Ukraine can take Crimea militarily," but that "Russia needs to believe that Crimea is at risk, in part to strengthen Ukraines position in any future negotiations."

It is hard to imagine a full-scale assault on geostrategically crucial territory long considered a part of the Russian homeland not causing a major escalation. And as Antiwars Dave DeCamp notes, smaller attacks on Crimea have indeed seen significant escalations from Moscow, contrary to claims laid out in the NYT article:

The New York Times report quoted Dara Massicot, a researcher from the RAND Corporation, who claimed that "Crimea has already been hit many times without a massive escalation from the Kremlin." But Massicots claim is false as Russia began launching missile strikes on vital Ukrainian infrastructure in response to the October truck bombing of the Crimean Bridge.

-Before the bridge bombing, Russia did not launch large-scale attacks on infrastructure in Ukraine, but now such bombardments have become routine, and millions of Ukrainians are struggling to power and heat their homes.

-NYT: United States Considering Helping Ukraine Strike Crimea
The Biden administration is considering supporting such attacks even if it risks major escalation by Dave DeCamp-Antiwar.com (Antiwarcom) January 19, 2023

It has been widely accepted among foreign policy analysts that Crimea is among the reddest of all of Russias red lines in this standoff. Back in October, Responsible Statecrafts Anatol Lieven discussed the difference in Russias perspective between Crimea and every other territory that Ukraine lays claim to in an assessment of the possibility of this conflict leading to nuclear war:

If Ukraine wins more victories and recovers the territories that Russia has occupied since February, President Putin will in my view probably be forced to resign, but Russia would likely not use nuclear weapons. If however Ukraine goes on to try to reconquer Crimea, which the overwhelming majority of Russians regard as simply Russian territory, the chances of an escalation to nuclear war become extremely high.

Decamp writes that "The lessening concern about President Putin resorting to nukes appears to be based only on the fact that he has not used any up to this point." But this is as logical as believing that it is safe and wise to jump even harder on the sleeping bear you have been jumping on just because the bear has not woken up yet.

The assumption that because a disaster has not happened in the past it will not happen in the future is a type of fallacious reasoning known as normalcy bias.

The assumption that because a disaster has not happened in the past it will not happen in the future, even though you keep doing things to make it increasingly likely, is just being a f-cking idiot.

It is like Wile E Coyote jumping up and down on the land mine until it explodes because it did not explode when the Roadrunner ran over it.

Insanely reckless from the Biden administration, and yet more signs we are barrelling into something disastrous. Numerous experts have said putting Russian control of Crimea in danger may be the most likely scenario for nuclear escalation.-Branko Marcetic (BMarchetich) January 18, 2023

Moscow considers Crimea to be Russian. A year after Russias 2014 annexation, western sources acknowledged that Crimeans feel the same way.

But it is actually immaterial whether you agree with Moscow or with the Crimeans over the issue of whether Crimea should be a hot red line which could spark an insanely dangerous escalation, because your opinions about this issue will not prevent a nuclear war. Your disagreements with the Kremlin about Crimea will not protect you from nuclear fallout, and they will not protect anyone else.

Nuclear warheads do not care about your feelings.

Any assertion that Russia will not use nukes under such-and-such a circumstance must squarely address this question: "Are you willing to gamble the life of every terrestrial organism on that claim being true?" If you can not answer this question, your claim is not serious or valid.

Are United States officials willing to bet the life of every terrestrial organism that the course of action they are considering will not trigger a chain of events leading to the end of the world?

This needs to be addressed fully, head-on, with all the weight it entails, because otherwise they are just not weighing the risks responsibly.

And something tells me that they are not!

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