NATO Plans to Destabilize Asia by Salman Rafi Sheikh!
(2024-07-23 at 22:56:36 )

NATO Plans to Destabilize Asia by Salman Rafi Sheikh!

NATOs plans to establish a foothold in Asia to counter China better is nothing more than a sure recipe for disaster. Coming to Asia and beating war drums against a country that has not attacked anyone is akin to pushing it to take any and all necessary steps to protect its interests. NATO, thus, is pushing China to shun its regionally focused pacificism in favour of a more belligerent stance. A more aggressive China will, in NATOs calculation, push Asian countries to move more towards the United States out of their common fear of Beijing as the hegemon. However, Asian countries are not readily buying the United States narrative. They remain sceptical, even as they are still committed to maintaining a balance between China and the United States to avoid getting trapped in the "Cold War 2.0".

NATOs Intended Exploits in Asia

In recent years, NATO has upped the ante in Asia to establish its tentacles. The linchpin of this strategy is to hijack the Asian countries defence and military strategies and shape them in strictly Western ways. This will include, as in the West, military competition plus a shift away from deep economic ties with Beijing. Once accomplished, this will help isolate China globally. In the United States, since 2016, the successive administrations of Donald Trump and Joe Biden have been taking steps to "de-couple" from China. The European Union, too, is now increasingly coming round to this idea of putting serious curbs on trade with China. A key reason for this is the inability of both the United States and the EU to compete with Chinese products. Ultimately, they want Asia to "learn" the same lesson.

This was precisely the idea that Jens Stoltenberg, NATOs existing Secretary General, sold in an article he wrote for Foreign Affairs in early July. Addressing the China-Russia ties and blaming China for the combined failure of the United States, EU, and NATO to defeat Russia in Ukraine, Stoltenberg said "this shows that in todays world, security is not a regional matter but a global one. Europes security affects Asia, and Asias security affects Europe - These are big challenges that call for bold decisions".

The bold decision, as it stands, is to link Europes security with Asia unnecessarily and at any cost. This will help the West centralize Asias security narrative under a common framework, with Asian countries ultimately losing their agency and autonomy. At least this is the idea.

How China Sees it

China has already warned NATO not to create "chaos" in Asia. "China urges NATO to - stop interfering in Chinas internal politics and smearing Chinas image and not create chaos in the Asia-Pacific after creating turmoil in Europe," said Chinese spokesperson Lin Jian.

Still, NATOs narrative could work against it, even as China will make sure to frame it in a way that could wean regional states away from it. For instance, as is already evident, China is projecting NATOs narrative, with evidence, in terms of how the United States - and the collective West - are actually pushing for confrontation even when Beijing does not have a history of engaging in aggression with its neighbours in the Asia-Pacific region. No shots have yet been fired that could draw a global outcry, calling for military solidarities against Beijing.

There is, therefore, a high degree of exaggeration and propaganda. If the imperative is really to counter China, why are the United States and NATO countries not putting a premier on building deep economic ties with Asian countries? The reason is that they do not have any economic plan of such magnitude that can counter China. Therefore, the West cannot help but offer military help. But this is a help that not many countries in Asia are even looking for. Defence cooperation with the United States is one thing, but welcoming NATO, a typical military alliance, in their territories and developing a global military alliance is an entirely different thing.

How Asian Countries See It

For many countries in Asia, any step towards NATOizing their security is reminiscent of colonial and imperialist relations that defined these territories and peoples relations with the West for centuries. Therefore, they seem to put a very high premium on maintaining their strategic autonomy.

Ironically, the opposition to developing a fully-fledged alliance is visible even in such countries as the Philippines that are otherwise known for being "pro-United States". President Ferdinand Marcos has called on the region to reject a "Cold War mindset". Kishore Mahbubani, formerly Singapores ambassador to the United Nations, for example, warned as early as 2021 that the "biggest danger" of NATOs Indo-Pacific shift is that the alliance "could end up exporting its disastrous militaristic culture" to East Asia. Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto, for instance, stated in June that his country would "continue our strong cooperation with China" but "at the same time, we will work to expand and deepen our close partnership with the United States and the West".

Let us also not forget that this region also includes a critical mass of countries - such as Indonesia - that have a history of "non-alignment". They refused to take sides during the Cold War, and they are again showing strong signs of maintaining a similar stance in the current scenario.

Still, these countries scepticism is intensified by NATOs recent performances. It has thus far badly failed in Ukraine. It wreaked havoc in Libya and Afghanistan, ultimately failing in both cases to bring stability. Does it have a track record of fulfilling its promises and achieving its objectives? For countries in Asia, establishing an alliance with an organization with such a poor record is a poor trade - not only because it will not bring much benefit, but also because it might directly - and negatively - affect their flourishing economic ties with China.

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistans foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine "New Eastern Outlook".

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