Donald Trumps "new" policy on Iran by Viktor Mikhin!
(2024-11-26 at 23:40:42 )

Donald Trumps "new" policy on Iran by Viktor Mikhin!

According to United States media, newly elected President Donald Trump is ready to begin a campaign of "maximum pressure" on Iran.

Trumps Iran Policy

Will Trump resume the ineffective policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran?

According to a report published by the Financial Times, Donald Trumps new team intends to "bankrupt" Iran during his second presidential term. The report, citing a national security expert close to the new team, states that executive orders targeting Iran, mainly its oil exports, could be signed on the first day Trump takes office.

Tehran has managed to create the Axis of Resistance, which is successfully opposing the United States and Israel

The so-called "maximum pressure campaign" is a set of measures imposed against Iran in 2018 after Trump brazenly and illegally withdrew Washington,D.C. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The agreement, signed in 2015, limited Irans nuclear programme in exchange for an easing of economic and financial sanctions. Donald Trump called the agreement a "disaster" only because it was signed by Democratic President Barack Obama. He allegedly stated that he was going to make sure that Iran would never receive nuclear weapons, while promising to limit Irans regional influence.

In other words, the world has a very dangerous precedent in the Middle East: on the one hand, Israel has completely illegally developed and put into service nuclear weapons and their means of delivery and, on the other hand, Donald Trump is trying to limit - and, moreover, prohibit - Iran from developing peaceful nuclear energy and oppose Tehrans relations with its neighbours. What kind of democracy is this and what exactly does Trump mean by the word "democracy"? This is no longer democracy, rather a medieval-type dictatorship: if I want to, I will allow it, but it is better not to allow it at all.

What was Trumps goal previously?

Since 1979, Iran has constantly faced United States sanctions. The Trump administrations "maximum pressure" campaign was not so much about inventing new limitations as about dramatically expanding the scope and viciously tightening compliance with previous or existing limitations.

Following the unabashed withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA (an international document), Trump immediately reinstated sanctions against Irans energy, shipping, shipbuilding, automotive and oil sectors in accordance with a decree issued on August 6, 2018.

The key difference was the aggressive implementation of so-called "secondary sanctions", which punished foreign organisations for doing business with Iran, regardless of whether these transactions violated their own domestic laws. The aim was to put significant pressure on international players to comply with United States sanctions. Apparently, Donald Trump considered himself a liege lord and all others to be his vassals, the purpose of whom was to fulfill Trumps will.

In May, 2019, the Trump administration dealt a blow to Irans metallurgical industry (the second largest source of export revenue) by tightening sanctions on the production of iron, steel, aluminum and copper. This included well-designed sanctions against any foreign financial institutions facilitating large transactions related to these industries. At the same time, Washington,D.C. was completely uninterested in the opinions and interests of other parties involved in peaceful trade with Iran.

The third major decree issued by Trump was directed against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and any organisations or individuals conducting financial transactions with it. The stated goal was to limit Irans production of ballistic missiles, a weapon that, according to then-United States Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook, existed only in Photoshop. Nevertheless, Trump hastened to impose severe sanctions on the IRGC.

The new Biden administration that came to power, contrary to expectations, did not put an end to Trumps policy. According to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, all sanctions were to remain in force and hundreds more new ones were added to them. It is incomprehensible how one strong and arrogant country is trying to rule the whole world and establish its own rules of life and trade that are only beneficial to it.

Did Trumps policy bear fruit?

"The efficacy of United States sanctions against a foreign government is measured by the economic damage not caused", said Amir Ali Abolfat, an expert on North American affairs, "and the extent to which sanctions achieve their political goals and change the behaviour of the target government". An analysis of statistics before the start of the "maximum pressure" campaign shows that, although Trump made it more difficult for Iran to earn money from exporting oil and metals, he failed to reduce them so much that a brave and persistent Iran had to change its policy.

"Iran produces strategically important goods", Abolfat explained. "As long as there is demand, these products will find their market. Although Iran no longer sells oil to Europe, it has begun supplying it to China, as evidenced by increased sales to that country, which is resisting pressure and United States hegemony. The same principle applies to the export of Iranian metals".

There is no doubt that Trump and Biden have created great difficulties for Iran, but did they manage to achieve their goals?

Absolutely not.

Irans uranium enrichment rate has increased from 3% to 60% and its military potential has expanded significantly over the past seven years. Moreover, Tehran is successfully developing friendly ties with its neighbours and has managed to create a so-called Axis of Resistance, which successfully opposes the United States and Israel in the region.

As for domestic needs, Iran has successfully reduced its dependence on European partners and former allies (such as Korea and Japan) by finding alternative suppliers. The departure of European automakers has led to a sharp increase in Chinese car imports, making Iran a major market. In addition, Iranian engineers and experts have independently completed projects to develop gas and oil fields that previously depended on Western cooperation. This self-confidence eventually spread to other industries previously dependent on imports, such as the food industry and medicine.

Sanctions and nothing else?

Central to Trumps policy in the Middle East from 2017 to 2021 was an unsuccessful attempt to drive a wedge between Arab countries and Iran, while simultaneously positioning Israel as a key regional security partner.

Now this approach is much less viable. Irans improved relations with countries, such as Saudi Arabia, and ongoing efforts to normalise ties with others, such as Egypt, undermine this strategy.

In addition, the successful Hamas operation on October 7 completely dispelled all notions of Israels invincibility and the actions of the Israeli regime to destroy the Palestinians made the continuation of the normalisation agreements concluded within the scope of Trumps "Abraham Accords" unlikely.

Experts believe that the only other untested option - the military option - to which hotheads in the United States and Israel are inclined, is fraught with enormous risk.

Such actions could lead to devastating consequences for the West, potentially widespread disruption of oil supplies, attacks on Western bases in the Middle East and fundamental changes to Irans nuclear policy.

Ultimately, Washington,D.C. must recognise that enormous pressure alone will not help it achieve its goals with regard to Iran.

To solve the United States problems, Irans problems must also be acknowledged. It is only through returning to the JCPOA and sitting at the negotiating table that the most difficult tasks in the region can be solved.

Iran is ready for this and has expressed this more than once. Is the "peacemaker" Trump ready for this or is he only thinking of using force?

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