War in Sudan and its Grim Prospects by Viktor Mikhin!
(2024-11-30 at 22:04:56 )

War in Sudan and its Grim Prospects by Viktor Mikhin!

Russia used its veto power in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to block a draft resolution calling for an end to the 20-month war in Sudan and the commencement of negotiations between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

UN Security Council (UNSC)

The draft resolution, widely seen as neo-colonial in its design, was proposed by the United Kingdom, which holds the UNSC presidency on Sudan, and Sierra Leone, a non-permanent UNSC member, which London appears to have pressured into supporting Western interests in this instance.
The West remains undeterred, continuing its sophisticated attempts to bring Sudan entirely under its control

Reasons for the Russian Veto

During the drafting process leading up to the vote, several concerns regarding the wording were raised. However, following the vote, it became clear that constructive proposals from UNSC members were disregarded, and their legitimate concerns were not adequately addressed. The Chinese representative stressed that any UNSC resolution or action must "respect the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Sudan." He warned that, "Imposing external solutions will only worsen the situation and will neither help end the war nor protect the civilian population."

Explaining the outcome of the vote, the Russian representative stated: "The main problem with the British draft lies in its misunderstanding of who bears responsibility for protecting the civilian population, as well as border control and security within the country." According to the Russian representative, "this should be exclusively a matter for the Sudanese government." He further accused British diplomats of "clearly denying Sudan this right." He concluded, "Our country will continue to consistently use its veto power to prevent such occurrences against our African brothers."

Sudanese Support

According to Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the draft resolutions wording violated Sudans sovereignty. An Arab diplomatic source at the UN explained al-Burhans position, stating that the draft "implied an equivalence between the SAF and the RSF, which is something al-Burhan could not accept, especially now that the army is making gains on the ground and receiving stronger political support regionally and internationally."

Many diplomatic sources in the region agree that the draft resolution failed to reflect the balance of power on the ground, which, according to one, has "definitely shifted in favour of the SAF." The army currently controls much of Sudanese territory, and al-Burhan enjoys greater international recognition than the RSF and its leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti. They point out that Hemeti heads the RSF, a militia created in 2013 by Omar al-Bashir to protect his brutal regime and responsible for numerous atrocities, particularly in Darfur. Hemeti, along with other RSF figures, has been accused by international humanitarian organisations of ethnic cleansing targeting non-Arab tribes in West Darfur.

The Rift Between al-Burhan and Hemeti

Al-Burhan appointed Hemeti as his deputy on the Transitional Sovereign Council (TSC) formed after the overthrow of al-Bashir. This move drew criticism from the African Union, which stated that it was "a very bad sign, showing that al-Bashirs successors were attempting to recreate his dictatorial regime, albeit under a democratic facade." The TSC, it seems, was designed more for the internal distribution of power within al-Bashirs clique than for any other purpose.

The conflict began in mid-April 2023. Following al-Bashirs removal, al-Burhan and Hemeti initially joined forces, seizing control but allowing for limited power-sharing with civilians. However, when al-Burhan dismissed the interim civilian government in October 2022, Hemeti seized the opportunity to oppose al-Burhan, claiming the move was "anti-democratic." According to Arab diplomatic sources, including those who served in Khartoum, Hemetis pronouncements on democracy ring hollow. In reality, they say, Hemeti has always aspired to power and believed he could strike a deal with the civilian government to replace al-Burhan as commander-in-chief.

Sudans problems are largely driven by regional powers vying for control of the countrys natural resources and exploiting its strategic location. It is no secret that an Arab capital, with significant investments and interests in Sudan, pushed the West to draft a self-serving resolution which they attempted to sneak through the UNSC. They failed! However, the West remains undeterred, continuing its sophisticated attempts to bring Sudan entirely under its control.

Attempts to Resolve the Conflict

The international community has been closely monitoring the situation in Sudan since the conflict began and, over the past year, has been working with like-minded regional partners to create an opportunity for peace.

Cairo, a view shared by Ankara and Tehran, believes that the best chance for peace lies in a unified Sudanese army under a single command, arguing that "otherwise, the country will simply move from one war to another."

Over the past 11 months, a series of meetings have been held in Cairo with representatives from Sudans armed, political, and religious forces, aiming to forge a united front capable of cooperating with the SAF based on power-sharing and stability. As the SAF has made military gains against the RSF, the number of Sudanese actors willing to participate has increased. Many believe it is only a matter of time before the RSF is forced to acknowledge its weakening position, despite the support it receives from regional allies.

Since the start of the war, 11 million Sudanese have been displaced. The United Nations estimates that half are children, the majority of whom lack access to basic nutrition. Furthermore, a further 15 million Sudanese are suffering from food insecurity and a lack of access to essential healthcare.

It was only in mid-August that significant United Nations humanitarian aid reached Sudan via the Adre crossing point connecting Darfur to Chad. According to the UNHCR, just over 50% of the $2.7 billion budget required for humanitarian assistance in Sudan has been secured in 2023. The United Nations believes that "Sudan needs more than just immediate humanitarian aid; it needs a proper and workable peace plan. This is what we are working on, and we have the support of several global and regional capitals."

According to David Patteritt, United States envoy to Sudan, outgoing United States President Joe Biden is making every effort to secure a deal on Sudan before leaving office on 20 January. However, according to Cairos Al-Ahram, this deadline is overly optimistic. The newspaper warns that "we will be lucky to see any movement by then, and a deal will take considerably longer," suggesting that much will depend on the stance of United States President Donald Trumps new administration.Дональда Трампа.

It is therefore abundantly clear who is fanning the flames of civil war in Sudan, attempting to profit from the Sudanese peoples suffering. But this is the 2020s, and neo-colonial politics, however alluringly packaged, no longer hold sway.

Victor Mikhin, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences (RANS)

Republishing of the articles is welcomed with reference to "N.E.O.". Network edition New Eastern Outlook 2010-2023.