Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high by Konstantin Asmolov!
(2025-02-15 at 05:03:31 )

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high by Konstantin Asmolov!

Following North Koreas January launch of a hypersonic missile, tensions on the peninsula have remained at the same level, fueled by the security dilemma.

DPRK missile launch

New Launches, New Drills

On January 14th, North Korea launched a series of short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), the missiles flew approximately 250 kilometers before falling into the sea.

However, North Korean media did not report the launch, leading South Koreans to understand that "the latest launch was a routine drill, with little emphasis on saber-rattling or propaganda, unlike other high-profile military provocations."

The United States and ROK Will By No Means Evade Responsibility for the Deteriorating Situation in the Region Caused by a Noticeable Increase in Military Provocations

On January 15th, the air forces of the United States, South Korea, and Japan conducted joint aerial exercises over international waters near the Korean Peninsula. The exercises involved a United States B-1B strategic bomber, South Korean F-15K fighters, and Japanese F-2 fighters. The stated goal of the drills was to enhance the three countries combined capabilities to deter Pyongyangs nuclear and missile threats.

Furthermore, from January 14th to 16th, the South Korean and United States ground forces conducted joint command post exercises in the Seoul metropolitan region, aimed at deterring North Koreas long-range artillery capabilities using artillery and air power. Approximately 250 military personnel from the two countries participated. The exercises simulated North Korean attacks that could potentially lead to a full-scale war. It was emphasized that the exercises were designed for participants to learn procedures for integrating and jointly using allied surveillance and intelligence assets, as well as ground and air strike forces.

On January 21st, the United States and South Korean Air Forces began the joint Buddy Squadron exercises at Wonju Air Base today. During the exercises, participants practiced close air support and combat air patrols.

On January 23rd, combined winter live-fire exercises took place under the observation of South Korean Acting Minister of National Defense Kim Sung-ho. Approximately 400 military personnel from the 17th Infantry Division participated, along with about 90 pieces of equipment, including K1E1 tanks, K808 wheeled armored personnel carriers, and K200A1 armored vehicles. In addition, 12 Air Force fighters of the F-15K, KF-16, and FA-50 types were involved in the maneuvers.

On January 26th, the prototype of the new MAH attack helicopter, being developed by South Korean designers for the needs of the Marine Corps, completed its first test flight. The MAH is a helicopter designed for troop landings and providing aerial fire support during related operations. It is essentially a modified version of the Marineon amphibious assault helicopter, tailored to the needs of the Marine Corps, and equipped with the weapon systems of the LAH light attack helicopter, consisting of a machine gun, air-to-ground guided missiles, and air-to-air missiles.

In response to all of this, on January 26th, the head of the Foreign Information Department of the DPRK Foreign Ministrys Information Department released a press statement titled "The US and ROK Will By No Means Evade Responsibility for the Deteriorating Situation in the Region Caused by a Noticeable Increase in Military Provocations." It noted that "The US and ROK, which began this year with trilateral joint air exercises involving the US, Japan, and ROK, deploying strategic bombers, are conducting various military exercises almost every day directly aimed at our state," but that "such actions will be followed by mirror measures." "The DPRK will not tolerate the imbalance of power imposed by the military collusion of the US and ROK, and will take ultra-powerful countermeasures to reliably protect the sovereign rights and security interests of the state, and to guarantee peace and stability in the region."

Kim Jong-un Observes Missile Tests and Visits Military Factories

On January 25th, the DPRKs General Administration of Missile Technology conducted a test launch of a strategic cruise missile, "sea (underwater)-to-ground." The launched missiles flew along an oval and figure-eight flight path for 1500 km, in 7507-7511 seconds (just over two hours and five minutes), and accurately hit their target. South Korean military officials confirmed the launch, noting that they detected the launch of several cruise missiles from an inland area of North Korea towards the Yellow Sea around 4 pm on Saturday.

Judging by images released by KCNA, the missiles appeared to have been launched using a cold-launch method, commonly used in vertical launch systems on submarines and ships. However, the location of the launcher on land may indicate that the missiles are in an early stage of development.

Kim Jong-un observed the weapons test. He was pleased and stated that "the war deterrent forces in the arsenal of the Republics armed forces are being more consistently perfected, assuring that we will continue to responsibly fulfill our important mission and duties to protect the enduring and permanent peace and stability based on more powerfully strengthened military forces."

In addition, around the same time, the DPRK leader inspected a nuclear material production facility and a nuclear weapons institute, calling for "strengthening the elevated high spirit, exceeding the plan for the production of weapon-grade nuclear materials, and achieving epoch-making successes in strengthening the countrys nuclear shield.

Kim Jong-un emphasized that "the external environment we find ourselves in remains harsh, and the challenge from hostile forces seeking to gain the upper hand in power is still intensifying."

KCNA did not specify which nuclear material production facility Kim visited, but the published photos suggest it may be the same facility he inspected last September.

Where to Next?

For now, the pace of United States-ROK exercises continues as it did under Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol. However, as Radio Free Asia reported, citing an "unnamed Pentagon official familiar with joint exercise plans," the schedule for joint South Korean-United States military exercises could change depending on the decisions of US President Donald Trump and the domestic political situation in the ROK.

While no official information about changes has been released, Fred Fleitz, Deputy Director of the America First Policy Institute and a close associate of Trump, expressed the opinion that a temporary suspension of United States-ROK exercises could be possible if there were an opportunity to hold negotiations with North Korea.

To summarize the commentary, it is worth citing the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs responses to media questions submitted for Sergey Lavrovs press conference on the results of Russian diplomacy in 2024: "If the United States were interested in a political and diplomatic settlement of the subregions problems, it would take practical steps to de-escalate military and political tensions and restart the negotiation process.

However, we have not seen anything like that in the past year. Moreover, Washington,D.C. and its allies, justifying their aggressive plans in the United Nations Security Council, continued to advocate for strengthening the inhumane and indefinite sanctions regime against the DPRK. At the same time, they ignored resolutions that require resolving the peninsulas problems exclusively through peaceful, diplomatic, and political means.

We are convinced that, under the circumstances, Pyongyang has the legitimate right to take independent measures to ensure its security and protect its sovereignty."

Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, Leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies, Institute of China and Modern Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences

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