Trumps Dual-faced Iran Gamble Will Backfire by Salman Rafi Sheikh!
(2025-02-21 at 07:32:31 )

Trumps Dual-faced Iran Gamble Will Backfire by Salman Rafi Sheikh!

The Trump administrations policy on Iran in 2025 demonstrates a balance between increased pressure and the possibility of negotiations, significantly impacting the geopolitical situation in the region.

Trumps Dual-faced Iran Gamble Will Backfire

On February 4, 2025, United States President Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) to revive "maximum pressure on Iran", yet he is open to making a deal with Tehran as well. But Irans refusal to negotiate with Washington,D.C. signals a much tougher Iran (with Russian support), leaving Trump in a diplomatic quandary within a fast changing and uncertain regional geopolitical context where Irans position is increasingly converging with Arab states.

The United States could not be trusted with another deal
Imam Khamenei

The "Maximum pressure"

Having secured a "cease fire" in Gaza and announced his plans to overtake the land as a "real estate" development venture, President Trumps NSPM sounds only a logical step towards strengthening Israel. The Israeli war on Gaza also tested Iran in significant ways. Besides both of them attacking each other directly, the Israeli assault on Hezbollah also pushed Iranian regional capability to its limits. In this context, the recently signed "comprehensive strategic partnership treaty" between Tehran and Moscow comes as a key strategic development.

Although it is not a mutual defence pact, the treaty still covers areas from trade and active military cooperation to science, culture and education. This is besides the coming into force of the free trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union and the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2025. As far as Irans ties with China are concerned, they were sealed via the 25-year co-operation agreement in 2021 when Biden was the United States president. Trumps maximum pressure, unlike when it was previously applied between 2016 and 2020, therefore interacts with the maximum support that Iran is now receiving from the two biggest United States competitors. Trump, therefore, is open to making a new deal.

The Deal

Soon after signing the agreement, Trump made a diplomatic about turn, indicating the possibility of a deal. Whereas the NSPM categorically says that "Iran should be denied a nuclear weapon and intercontinental ballistic missiles", Trump still said "We will see whether we can arrange to work out a deal with Iran and everybody can live together. Maybe it is possible, maybe it is not possible."

Trump said this for two chief reasons. First, he wanted to convey a message to Iran that his policy is independent of Netanyahus influence, which is why his remarks preceded Netanyahus arrival in the United States. Second, Trump also understands that the current Iranian president might be willing to enter into negotiations.

But Trumps expectations stand defied, as Iran has officially rejected the possibility of entering into a new deal while facing "maximum pressure". It is possible that the Trump administration might see in Irans refusal to negotiate a new deal a pretext to actually apply "maximum pressure". But Irans response has its roots in the existing geopolitical context.

Irans Geopolitics

In an address on the 7th of February delivered to Iranian military commanders, Irans Supreme Leader Imam Khamenei said that the United States could not be trusted with another deal. The sentiment largely represents what the deep state in Iran really thinks and stands vis-a-vis the United States. Also, Iran expects regional states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to take an anti-United States position vis-a-vis regional issues, including Palestine.

Trumps plan for the United States to militarily takeover Gaza has already caused Saudi Arabia and UAE to reject the plan. Egypt and Jordan, too, have rejected the plan. It has already Trump announced the possibility of withdrawing United States aid for both countries. Both Jordan and Egypt are the second and the third-largest recipients of United States aid in the Middle East, after Israel.

By doing so, Trump would practically be jeopardizing a decades-old regional arrangement whereby both Egypt and Jordan recognized Israel. In addition, by spreading economic instability in the region through punitive measures, Trump would also destabilize political foundations of the Abraham Accords, leaving the room open for states like Saudi Arabia to reject United States-deal to enter the Accords and pursue alternative security arrangements, including better bilateral ties with Iran via active diplomatic support of China and Russia.

Both Saudi Arabi and Iran together rejected Netanyahus remarks about creating a state for the people of Palestine within Saudi Arabia. In other words, both have rejected Doanld Trumps plan to permanently displace Palestinians from their homes.

If Trump persists pursuing this plan, both Iran and Saudi Arabia will have a major reason to collaborate. While Iran would see in this plan space for "Greater Israel", Saudi Arabia would see in this plan not only the impossibility of displacing millions of Palestinians but also the fact that Trump wants Saudi Arabia (Gulf states) to foot the bill for relocating these millions of people. Trump said, during Netanyahus visit, this because he believed that the Kingdom was prepared to move beyond the idea of a Palestinian state. But the Kingdom has already rejected this. It took them only 45 minutes to issue a retort, saying that "His Royal Highness emphasised that Saudi Arabia would continue its relentless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital and will not establish relations with Israel without that".

This is how Trump is most likely to end up pushing Iran and Saudi Arabi closer to each other. His maximum pressure on Iran is undermined by his aggressive approach towards Saudi Arabia, with both Iran and Saudi Arabia seeing in Trump a president not necessarily amused by the mere spectacles of geopolitics but a sort of geopolitics in which he himself is the centre stage. In the short and long run, this tendency could backfire in the form of a further convergence between Iran and Saudi Arabia and divergence between Saudi Arabia and the United States on the one hand and Saudi Arabia and Israel on the other.

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistans foreign and domestic affairs

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