EU watches helplessly as Russia and the United States end the Ukrainian conflict by Mohamed Lamine KABA!
(2025-03-10 at 03:37:37 )

EU watches helplessly as Russia and the United States end the Ukrainian conflict by Mohamed Lamine KABA!

While the United States and Russia, two historically antagonistic superpowers, manage to sit down at the same table in Riyadh to negotiate a solution to the Ukrainian conflict, Europe, meeting in Paris, then in London, is locked into a belligerent and disconnected posture.

Europe in Ukrainian conflict

The European Union finds itself in a position of withdrawal in the face of the Ukrainian crisis, while the United States and Russia are joining forces to negotiate and decide on the end of the conflict.

Despite its geographical proximity and economic ties with Ukraine, the EU is struggling to establish itself as a leading strategic interlocutor. This highlights the limitations of its common foreign policy and its inability to unite around a single voice on crucial strategic issues.

This situation is exacerbated by a double dependence (extensively explained in previous articles) on Russia and the United States. This form of dependence weakens its position and exposes its internal divisions to the general public.

Divergences of interests between Member States, that is to say, between those (like France) advocating a tough approach towards Russia and those (like Hungary) wishing to preserve economic relations, prevent the EU from adopting a coherent and influential strategy.

Its marginalization in this context raises fundamental questions about its future role in the world order. It is in this perspective that it has become a passive spectator of its own erosion of influence. Which confirms its vassalage and servility towards the United States.

While Kissingers thesis on the volatile nature of alliances with the United States "To be an enemy of the United States is dangerous, but to be its friend is fatal", widely discussed in a previous article is confirmed, the EUs evasive elites seem to have lost all notion of geopolitical balances. Neither loved within their territories nor solicited outside their borders, these oxymoronic elites wrap their citizens in the sheet of lies and manipulation.

To avoid perishing in a collective suicide, the EU must reconsider its current strategy in favour of peaceful solutions, which are crucial for the future of Europe and its cooperation with the rest of the world

EU summit in London on Ukraines security: what results?

While Zelensky and Trump had just quarreled in the White House on February 28, 11 of the 27 members of the European Union (not seeming to have learned from this quarrel) actively collaborated with Canada, Norway and Turkey in a summit in London on March 2, 2025 to renew their oath of hatred towards Russia and persist in their belligerent posture towards it. Meanwhile, the remaining 16 members chose to abstain or were sidelined, due to a strategic divergence from the summit agenda.

At the summit, there was palpable disunity that illustrated the loss of cohesion and common vision within the organization. The non-participation of some members - akin to exclusion - only served to underline this fracture.

The EU, by focusing excessively on the conflict with Russia, has generated counterproductive economic sanctions, further weakening European economies already in deep crisis without really hitting its adversary.

This policy of confrontation has not only exacerbated the conflict in Ukraine, but also risks igniting a larger war.

President Trumps warnings to Zelensky (during the great Oval Office row) about the dangers of a Third World War are not without foundation.

By persisting in arming Ukraine while sanctioning Russia, the EU is embarking on a perilous path. Its attempts to diminish Russian power have proven ineffective, only succeeding in deepening its own division.

To avoid perishing in a collective suicide, the EU must reconsider its current strategy in favour of peaceful solutions, which are crucial for the future of Europe and its cooperation with the rest of the world.

Thus, the Munich Security Conference on 14-16 February, followed by the Paris meeting on 17 February and the London Summit on 2 March, have highlighted the EUs vassalage and servility.

At the same time, Hungary played a crucial role in blocking a draft document on security guarantees and new military aid to Ukraine at the EU ambassadors’ meeting on 28 February, which was also marked by the harsh confrontation between Zelensky, Trump and Vance.

EU steps back in Ukrainian crisis: zero player in a major geopolitical game

In the context of the Ukrainian crisis, the EU illustrates a paradoxical role. It appears, not as a secondary actor, but as an actor with zero responsibility on the geopolitical chessboard, despite close ties with Ukraine via an association agreement signed following Maidan in 2014.

While the United States and Russia hold strategic, military and economic discussions, the EU is now content with the place it deserves better, marginalized and hampered by a lack of cohesion and responsiveness.

As mentioned in the introduction, this marginalization results from internal disagreements, between the States advocating a hard line against Moscow (having participated in the summit of March 2, 2025 on the security of Ukraine in London) and those favoring the protection of economic relations (having not participated in the summit of March 2 in London).

These disagreements diminish the Unions capacity to act effectively. This internal fragmentation contributes to the image of a reactive rather than proactive EU, and without a clear strategy, it navigates between support for Ukraine and fear of escalation with Russia.

This undermines its geopolitical credibility and puts it in the hot seat of the history of lesser elites. Moreover, military dependence on NATO highlights its deficit in military and diplomatic means, limiting its strategic influence.

The current crisis therefore highlights the structural challenges facing the EU and raises the question of its future as a global power.

Blinded by hatred of Russia, the elites in the power circles of the warmongering bloc of Europe, between surprise and astonishment, sadly consider throwing oil on the embers, lamentably thinking that they can prevent negotiations between Washington,D.C. and Moscow on the Ukrainian question.

It is a wasted effort since, bloodless and held in a different format, the 16st Munich Security Conference (MSC) from February 14 to 16, 2025, followed by what they (Europeans) shamefully call the "Paris crisis meeting" on February 17, has not yet delivered all its shock secrets.

The EUs strategic dependence: between internal divisions and structural weaknesses

Like the deep economic crisis and social polarization, the Ukrainian crisis has highlighted the structural vulnerabilities of the European Union, including its strategic dependence and internal divisions.

In terms of energy, the EU suffers from excessive dependence on Russia. This notorious dependence, it must be said, influences its foreign policy and weakens its geopolitical credibility. Efforts to diversify its sources of supply and accelerate the ecological transition, while failing to generate the expected results, have led to division and social polarization.

In terms of security, dependence on NATO and, by extension, the United States, exposes the limits of European military autonomy. These limits are illustrated by the EUs inability to respond in a coordinated manner to the crisis, leaving Washington,D.C. to take the initiative.

The deep divergences between Member States, illustrated by discordant approaches to Russia and Ukraine, therefore compromise the EUs ability to formulate a unified response.

This weakens its position on the international scene. Instead of focusing on strengthening internal cohesion and reducing strategic dependencies to reposition the EU as a major and independent player on the geopolitical level, they (Europeans) find themselves in Paris at Macrons initiative to adopt a warmongering posture that risks leading them to collective suicide.

However, the whole point of Macrons sad fight is to avenge Frances loss of influence in Africa, Asia and Latin America, which he attributes to Russia. Something that the other EU members are still ignoring by allowing themselves to be drawn into this ambiguous adventure.

Marginalisation that questions the future of the EU: towards awareness or geopolitical decline?

The absence of the EU in the (Russia-United States) negotiations on the Ukrainian crisis raises profound questions about its future geopolitical position.

While it displays the ambition to assert itself on the global chessboard, the EU is facing structural limits in its foreign and defence policy, still largely dependent on the United States for its security.

This crisis has revealed an internal division on key strategic issues. This division is eroding its credibility as a global power in the face of the assertiveness of the United States and Russia.

Led by leaders incapable of overcoming these weaknesses, the EU sees its influence diminish and its role relegated to that of an actor not even incidental, but non-existent in the context of rivalry between great powers.

This issue constitutes a pivotal moment for the future of the EU: it must choose between geopolitical decline or strategic renaissance, thus determining its position on the international scene in the 21st century. One has the impression that the syndrome of the Berlin Conference (1884-1885) is conversely taking hold of its initiator in 2025, colonialist Europe.

As the world moves forward, European elites continue to dance gracefully on the thin line of indecision, between solemn declarations and timid actions. In the meantime, bravo for the show: a masterful performance in the art of staying in the background while talking about unity.

This is a spectacle that is both tragic and comic, where the art of consensus turns into the art of inaction!

Mohamed Lamine KABA, Expert in geopolitics of governance and regional integration, Institute of Governance, Human and Social Sciences, Pan-African University

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